Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[jt]

The problem is that you cannot replace them for nothing. Peterson already got a big increase starting next year, Kempe, Lemieux, Lizotte, Grundstrom, and Durzi are all due increase (Kempe and Durzi sizable), and Kaliyev, Byfield, Turcotte, and many not yet with the big club will be due raises by the time Chychrun's contract expires. Yes we do have players falling off in the time, and also the cap is due to increase but so too will inflation and along with it contract prices.

I agree with most of what you're saying. But guys like Lizotte and Grundstrom are replaceable and I think the PLAN is to replace them with guys like Kaliyev, Madden, etc. who will be at the league minimum. Also, we'll have to see what increase Durzi gets. He's up this summer and I bet he gets something like $1.8 x 2. And then he gets traded when Clarke can take his place at the league minimum. But you're spot on with Kempe. He could easily get $6M x 5 if he's willing to have lots of UFA years bought.

My point is simply that you need a high confidence in Chychrun in order to pull the trigger on him - this won't be one that Blake will be able to swing and miss big on given what he will need to give up, and he knows that.

Agree 100%. You get one shot to trade Turcotte and you better make it count.

By 2025-26? Not likely. He will go for quite a bit more than that if he is as good as people on this site are projecting.

Who would your comp be that has signed in the last 2 years? In the entire NHL only 2 D make more than $9.06M: Karlsson and Doughty. D aren't getting paid more than that. Even Makar is only $9M and he signed last July? Do you really think there's anything Chychrun could do to get more than Makar?

Yes there is, quite a big difference. It doesn't mean a dark horse cannot win (which if you recall the Kings were projected to do well during preseason predictions during that campaign then stalled out of the gate) but we are dealing in probabilities. I was one of the few on this board to predicted the Kings to be a playoff team this year, and went all in on it prior to the beginning of the season. Doesn't mean I would predict them to the win the cup, however.

We just see it differently then. This isn't the 00s when it took 5 years from when you drafted your cornerstone player (Byfield) to contend. The Kings are a solid playoff contender THIS season and they're only going to get better.

Hence the future payday which will likely occur prior to 25-26

Who's payday? Chuchrun's? Can't happen because he isn't UFA until then. Who else? Byfield? Sure, maybe to $8-9M like Hughes. You make it sound like he'll get Panarin money even though he'll be a cost controlled RFA well past 25-26.

It's death by a thousand paper cuts, look at how many contract increases are bound to occur by then and Byfield should get a big pay raise by that time if he is even half the player we project him to be. I think Durzi will be one to watch as well.

I have and I disagree. They have a solid pipeline to replace players as they earn big contracts. Clarke, Grans, or maybe Spence will replace Durzi if they can't afford him. Madden, Thomas, Chromiak, Laferriere, or Fagemo will replace one or more of the others if they can't afford them. That's what good teams do with good pipelines. They ship off guys they can't afford and replace them with affordable kids.

I like this, but if you do not manage the finances you will lose even more great players...

Like who? What "great" player could they lose?

Show me one player who has taken a home town discount to stay with the Kings under Blake. I'll wait...

Who said anything about a home town discount? I don't expect one single player to take a home town discount. They can still afford a guy like Chychrun.

Then play GM and give me some alternatives. You asked me to do so, so only fair you play as well.

I think I didn't make my point...that's actually the problem. There are SO few LD who have any real potential like Chychrun who are ever available to acquire that THAT is why he's so intriguing and worth paying so much for. I've been saying this since the subject came up...if not him, then who? There aren't many good options, if even one. The LD who get talked about as possibles are either not really available for anything the Kings are willing to trade (Provorov, Dahlin, Sergachev, Byram, Werenski, Chabot), not young (Martinez, Yandle), or just not enough of an upgrade over what Bjornfot looks like he'll turn into (Dunn, Girard).

It's supply and demand. The supply of LD like Chychrun is SO small, the demand is huge...so he's worth a ton.

 

[hokiecat]

Personally I think a few on this board are too short sighted and do not understand the financial aspect. By the time Chycrhrun's extension comes due we will have had to resign our entire young core, all of which will be due for increases (some very significantly). On top of this we have $11m/season wrapped up in Doughty. Chrychrun, if he pans out like so many on this thread project him to, will be due $12-13m/season minimum. So are you telling me we are going to wrap $23M/season into two defensive players and still be competitive? We could, but it is very much not likely.

There is also a big different between a playoff team and cup contender. Blake projects to still be the GM, based on his extension, when Chychrun's extension comes does and knows he needs to add some quality scoring between now and a deep playoff run. He is going to make a more level long term bet given all the factors than Chrychrun unless Chrychrun comes at a reasonable price. Sure we could trade players here and there but are we really going to be able to roll with 3 big contracts (projecting one of our youngsters, if not more, pan out)?

Much of being a long term cup contender comes down to managing long term finances. It's not about getting the best players, but rather about putting together the best team.

????????
Chychrun is going to make more than Makar and Fox? Extremely unlikely. And if he is a 2x Norris Trophy winner + Hart winner asking for 12.5 million then we are probably thanking our lucky stars in stealing him. Either we pay him or trade him for an embarrassment of riches. Maybe try a little harder in your contrived example.
I understand wanting to get JC or another defenseman as cheaply as possible but we cannot play Vilardi/Kupari/Turcotte/Byfield/Fagemo/JAD/etc in a lineup which still has Kopitar/Danault/AI/Kempe/Kaliyev/+. At some point Blake needs to figure out which prospects feel like keepers and which are expendable. I'd rather have a smaller group of top, top players getting auditioned than a bunch of maybes. You can't still be auditioning the first wave and figuring out what the Kings have and then you lose guys from the next wave because they are rotting in the AHL. We either need to develop these prospects or move them before their value declines to zero.

 

[DryKing]

????????
Chychrun is going to make more than Makar and Fox? Extremely unlikely. And if he is a 2x Norris Trophy winner + Hart winner asking for 12.5 million then we are probably thanking our lucky stars in stealing him. Either we pay him or trade him for an embarrassment of riches. Maybe try a little harder in your contrived example.
I understand wanting to get JC or another defenseman as cheaply as possible but we cannot play Vilardi/Kupari/Turcotte/Byfield/Fagemo/JAD/etc in a lineup which still has Kopitar/Danault/AI/Kempe/Kaliyev/+. At some point Blake needs to figure out which prospects feel like keepers and which are expendable. I'd rather have a smaller group of top, top players getting auditioned than a bunch of maybes. You can't still be auditioning the first wave and figuring out what the Kings have and then you lose guys from the next wave because they are rotting in the AHL. We either need to develop these prospects or move them before their value declines to zero.

Chychrun will sign for more signing in 2025 (in regards to AAV), than what Makar and Fox signed for in 2021/2 if he has established himself as a legit top 2 defensemen by that time, yes. The only thing that stops that from happening is either the NHL goes bankrupt or a complete economic collapse in the US/Canada. It doesn't mean he is a better player than the other two, or even nearly as good, it's simply economics. There is a reason why a player like Ovy signs crazy high deals which, as years progress, become more and more in line with top players and actually below many who he add more value than by the latter part of his contract.

The rest of your post though is spot on, we really need to start weeding out who will stay and who will go and make roster moves soon - but we also need to avoid becoming a team like Edmonton or Toronto with the majority of money tied up with just a few players leaving a team with many holes to fill and little ability to do so.

 

[jt]

Chychrun will sign for more signing in 2025 (in regards to AAV), than what Makar and Fox signed for in 2021/2 if he has established himself as a legit top 2 defensemen by that time, yes. The only thing that stops that from happening is either the NHL goes bankrupt or a complete economic collapse in the US/Canada. It doesn't mean he is a better player than the other two, or even nearly as good, it's simply economics. There is a reason why a player like Ovy signs crazy high deals which, as years progress, become more and more in line with top players and actually below many who he add more value than by the latter part of his contract.

But I don't think the facts bear that out. Makar and Fox didn't sign for more than Doughty who signed on 7/1/18. Neither did Heiskanen.

I think it's always possible that if Chychrun develops into a Makar or Fox that someone will pay him more than them. But it's not gonna be $11M. D just don't get paid that anymore. If you mean he'll get that because of inflation, that'll only happen if inflation also causes the cap to go up, in which case it's ok because they've got the money to play with. BTW, I've read for years that NHL player comps are often not just nominal dollars but salary cap %, so it seems likely that if Chychrun developed into a Makar or Fox that he'd get the same relative salary cap %, which by its very definition means he'd have exactly the same impact on the cap as those 2 on their teams.

 

[JWR]

I think Chychrun would be perfect for us going forward and I am certain we will be able to afford whatever going rate it takes to resign him. He is make 4.6 mil through 24-25. By the time he next contract would take affect there will be several things which will happen.
1. I am certain the cap will have gone up.
2. Brown will either retire or be let go after this season $5.8 mil
3. Quick will be gone after next year $5.8 mil
4. Elder gone $3.5 mil
5. Arvidsson after 24-25 $4.5 mil
6. Kopi up after 24-25 if resigned I don't expect he will get the $10mil (no Lombardi reward contracts)
7 Phanuf buyout off the books $1.06 mil

So with the younger players coming up we can afford Chychrun. (- those needing to be packaged to get him)

 

[emsomaso]

I think Chychrun would be perfect for us going forward and I am certain we will be able to afford whatever going rate it takes to resign him. He is make 4.6 mil through 24-25. By the time he next contract would take affect there will be several things which will happen.
1. I am certain the cap will have gone up.
2. Brown will either retire or be let go after this season $5.8 mil
3. Quick will be gone after next year $5.8 mil
4. Elder gone $3.5 mil
5. Arvidsson after 24-25 $4.5 mil
6. Kopi up after 24-25 if resigned I don't expect he will get the $10mil (no Lombardi reward contracts)
7 Phanuf buyout off the books $1.06 mil

So with the younger players coming up we can afford Chychrun. (- those needing to be packaged to get him)

Add to that Athanasiou 2.7 mil and Maatta 3.3 mil plus the dead cap of Carter 2.6 mil and if I?m not mistaken Richards 900k off the books. Even taken into concideration that some of these players (and the ones you mention) needs to be replaced or resigned we will have the money needed.

We also have the assets needed and simply can?t fit all forward prospects into our line-up, so IMO we make the deal and if JC is (or given his young age develops to) the defenseman many of us hopes, paying him is a good problem to have!!

 

[JWR]

Add to that Athanasiou 2.7 mil and Maatta 3.3 mil plus the dead cap of Carter 2.6 mil and if I’m not mistaken Richards 900k off the books. Even taken into concideration that some of these players (and the ones you mention) needs to be replaced or resigned we will have the money needed.

We also have the assets needed and simply can’t fit all forward prospects into our line-up, so IMO we make the deal and if JC is (or given his young age develops to) the defenseman many of us hopes, paying him is a good problem to have!!

I was more concentrating on the more expensive contracts going off the books before Chychrun's next contract. since the numbers being bounced around in this thread for Chychrun's next contract seemed to be in the 9-11 mil range and that with the younger players replacing those expensive ones that range of contract could be done without hamstringing the team salary wise. I do realize there will be RFA's like Kempe and Durzi needing to be paid but I think it could work out.
Carter's hit ends after this year , Phaneuf ends next year while Richards hangs on through 26-27 but drops to 700,000 for 2 years then 600,000 for the last 2

 

[jammer06]

Everyone with the Quick will be gone take... I'll be honest I'd lay better than 50% odds he will have another contract with the Kings.

 

[emsomaso]

Everyone with the Quick will be gone take... I'll be honest I'd lay better than 50% odds he will have another contract with the Kings.

I think that may happen too and I’m not against it at all. But he will not make $5.8 mil, so there is still money to be saved.

 

[emsomaso]

I was more concentrating on the more expensive contracts going off the books before Chychrun's next contract. since the numbers being bounced around in this thread for Chychrun's next contract seemed to be in the 9-11 mil range and that with the younger players replacing those expensive ones that range of contract could be done without hamstringing the team salary wise. I do realize there will be RFA's like Kempe and Durzi needing to be paid but I think it could work out.
Carter's hit ends after this year , Phaneuf ends next year while Richards hangs on through 26-27 but drops to 700,000 for 2 years then 600,000 for the last 2

I understand that. I just wanted to back up your statement that JC are a right fit for us and that we would be able to afford him!

 

[jt]

So this was what I posted a while back.

So what's the MOST you'd give up for him? If it took this much, would you trade all this for him?

Clarke
Turcotte
Anderson or Bjornfot
2022 1st

And if you wouldn't, how do you solve the LD problem?

Anyone got new opinions?

 

[DryKing]

So this was what I posted a while back.



Anyone got new opinions?

I'm still not sold on him but he's had a strong February so far - if Blake is going to make a move for him it seems like the time to do it as he is trending up. I wouldn't give up as much as you have listed in the trade package idea to get him, however, but we could lose those players and still be fine given how other prospects currently stuck in the AHL have grown.

Whatever we do, we need to start thinning the herd.

 

[Illegal_Stick]

To me: if Blake believes in the group he has in prospects and by all accounts, he should. Then the starting point for a deal could be more than one first round pick. You still have to give up some assets, but I would think two firsts can get you more to that Turcotte plus Bjornfoot level. Would still hurt to lose Turcotte, but we you have to give to get and it gives two years to figure out which prospects stay and go while we're not drafting in the first round.

Heck, I'd go three, but that's why I'll never be an NHL executive of any kind.

 

[VCRW]

Anyone got new opinions?

Hasn't Florida's reported offer put this deal out of reach? Time to start dealing some of our very talented right shot guys to a team short on RD for either a LD who isn't such a bright shiny object or a scoring forward.

 

[LAKingSteve]

Here's Mayor's new article on the subject. Bottom line, Kings most likely out. His insiders have stated that any deal including Clarke or Byfield is off the table from the Kings perspective. Read the full article, I only pasted a couple what ifs below

https://mayorsmanor.com/2022/02/what-would-jakob-chychrun-cost-the-kings-and-should-they-do-it/

For example, if the Kings were willing to package Clarke, Alex Turcotte, a first round pick and a second round pick, it is believed Arizona would accept that deal.

Given LA?s preference to not include Clarke, the scope begins to change.

Turcotte, Vilardi, a first, and a second? Not enough.

Turcotte, Vilardi, and two firsts? Possible.

Turcotte, Bjornfot, and two firsts? Acceptable.

 

[HTK]

Each of these offers is too much. For these packages I expect more of a sure thing. Also the Kings are not winning a cup this year. I say they add via trade next year.

Nobody wants to do this be they need to focus on the rebuild. Trade Drew and Quick while there is still a chance. I would trade Kopi too but don?t think he is movable.

Use the compiled assets to make your trades.

Here's Mayor's new article on the subject. Bottom line, Kings most likely out. His insiders have stated that any deal including Clarke or Byfield is off the table from the Kings perspective. Read the full article, I only pasted a couple what ifs below

https://mayorsmanor.com/2022/02/what-would-jakob-chychrun-cost-the-kings-and-should-they-do-it/

For example, if the Kings were willing to package Clarke, Alex Turcotte, a first round pick and a second round pick, it is believed Arizona would accept that deal.

Given LA?s preference to not include Clarke, the scope begins to change.

Turcotte, Vilardi, a first, and a second? Not enough.

Turcotte, Vilardi, and two firsts? Possible.

Turcotte, Bjornfot, and two firsts? Acceptable.

 

[santiclaws]

Hasn't Florida's reported offer put this deal out of reach? Time to start dealing some of our very talented right shot guys to a team short on RD for either a LD who isn't such a bright shiny object or a scoring forward.

I think if Florida's offer had actually been made Chychrun would be in Florida now. Same with the Kings being "out." AZ has plenty of time and the Kings may well be out if they have to cough up Clarke, but it doesn't mean they won't be back or that AZ won't accept a package without Clarke down the road. They're asking for the moon, but it doesn't mean they'll get it. We're still in the posturing stage of negotiations.

 

[emsomaso]

Hasn't Florida's reported offer put this deal out of reach? Time to start dealing some of our very talented right shot guys to a team short on RD for either a LD who isn't such a bright shiny object or a scoring forward.

I’ve missed Florida’s offer, could you please recap? Thank you!

 

[Kurisu]

I’ve missed Florida’s offer, could you please recap? Thank you!

From The Mayor's article today:

"If Florida is really considering putting a package together for Chychrun that includes Panthers prospects Spencer Knight and Anton Lundell, forget about the Kings overpaying to get the defenseman. That’s taking things to a whole new level… and adds to the context of ‘the Kings are out’ on Chychrun."

 

[VCRW]

I’ve missed Florida’s offer, could you please recap? Thank you!

Lundell, Knight and a 1st