Elliotte Friedman: Chychrun May Be Available

[jt]

The Florida rumor is persistent. That's all I said. It's been widely discussed. Did you miss the "If there is any truth to it at all" declaration about the speculative nature of my comment?

I didn't miss it. I just think there is absolutely no way it's an offer so there "is no truth to it". So I discount it as not relevant to any discussions involving a Chychrun trade.

I didn't say "paralyzed by" worst case goblins. I used the word "considered". Chychrun's play this year has been concerning and his +/- is alarming.

Sure, but if he didn't have any concerns and was a world class player this season he would be totally unavailable. If the thinking is that the Kings should only trade for players without risk, no trade will happen. If that's not the thinking, the Kings have to pay market value. And market value for Chychrun is something close to Turcotte + Bjornfot + 2 1st. Anyone not willing to pay that, just never makes a trade.

And, of course, every player risks injury every game. My wry injury comment was about a Kings Karmic payback for overpaying. I should have made that more clear.

LOL

So... I am no longer immovably convinced that 4 #1s is a reasonable price.

Okay? I'm done playing... not getting sucked into the vortex.

But I do love the way your analytical mind works...

Okey dokey.

 

[jt]

People vastly overrate Voynov compared to what he was getting from Mitchell. Its pretty obvious who drove that pair when Mitchell was out in 2013 and how the back end handled that. Who could forget the days of Keaton Ellerby and Davis Drewiske.

I'd have to go back and watch all the playoffs games, which I have thanks to waterboy100. I might even do that just to see Voynov's play. But I think he was a dynamic RD who could be dynamic because he had Mitchell. The fact that he had a defensive rock doesn't negate that he was a stud offensively.

 

[HeadInjury]

That's exactly the point. D like Chychrun aren't available often. That's why he's so valuable to trade for.



I love Jones as an example. Yeah, he was older when he was traded. But does his "provenness" outweigh his youth? If the Kings waited for a Jones type D to become available, these things would have to happen:

1. A team has to be willing to trade him to the Kings.
2. The D has to be willing to sign a GIGANTIC extension with the Kings.
3. The Kings have to be willing to sign said player to a GIGANTIC extension.
4. It all has to fit in the cap.

I am very pessimistic all those things can come together at the same time for the Kings. And I'm not at all convinced that Jones at 28 (and $9.5M x 8) is worth as much as Chychrun at 23 (and $4.6M x 3).

So I think Jones isn't a valid comp because he's too old.

I'm really not interested in playing debate class with you. You've provided no example of a young d-man returning 4 first round assets in return.

By the way, Jones was 26 when traded and Chychrun will be 24 next month. It's not that much of an age difference. The biggest difference was that Jones was and is a much more established player. I think it's possible that Chychrun will end up being better than Jones, but he might continue to be a fairly inconsistent player who has one standout season. Given how young we are, a veteran d-man in this late 20s would fit in just as well if not better.

 

[jt]

I'm really not interested in playing debate class with you. You've provided no example of a young d-man returning 4 first round assets in return.

Um, ok. Just to clarify, that's because young D comparable to Chychrun don't get traded for young assets. They usually get traded for another stud D or F. THAT is why this is so unusual.

By the way, Jones was 26 when traded and Chychrun will be 24 next month. It's not that much of an age difference. The biggest difference was that Jones was and is a much more established player. I think it's possible that Chychrun will end up being better than Jones, but he might continue to be a fairly inconsistent player who has one standout season.

Yeah, but he'll be 28 in January of when his shiny new contract starts and without that new deal the trade doesn't happen. So it's a HUGE difference. Also, Jones all but said he wasn't going anywhere besides Chicago and he had nearly all the leverage. Chychrun has no leverage and hasn't said anything like that.

Given how young we are, a veteran d-man in this late 20s would fit in just as well if not better.

At the risk of you rejecting this as debate...who is that D "in his late 20s"?

 

[DryKing]

That's exactly the point. D like Chychrun aren't available often. That's why he's so valuable to trade for.



I love Jones as an example. Yeah, he was older when he was traded. But does his "provenness" outweigh his youth? If the Kings waited for a Jones type D to become available, these things would have to happen:

1. A team has to be willing to trade him to the Kings.
2. The D has to be willing to sign a GIGANTIC extension with the Kings.
3. The Kings have to be willing to sign said player to a GIGANTIC extension.
4. It all has to fit in the cap.

I am very pessimistic all those things can come together at the same time for the Kings. And I'm not at all convinced that Jones at 28 (and $9.5M x 8) is worth as much as Chychrun at 23 (and $4.6M x 3).

So I think Jones isn't a valid comp because he's too old.

Gotta disagree on this one - Chychrun isn't currently in the same ballpark as Jones. Could he get there? Sure and last season he looked like he may surpass Jones, but he is not in that realm today. Additionally Jones expiring contract was $5.4m at the time (knowingly due for a big pay raise).

It's cool to bank on youth/potential and I agree it is a factor, but there is a reason why we cannot trade Byfield for a player like Guentzel straight up today - there is a lot of risk that despite a high potential it will never be realized.

I agree with VCRW that 4 1st round draft picks from a lottery team is too much. 4 1st round draft picks from a playoff contender (late round picks) though may be feasible.

 

[HeadInjury]

At the risk of you rejecting this as debate...who is that D "in his late 20s"?

Well, Hampus Lindholm immediately comes to mind. I don't think we could trade for him, but if he hits free agency I think he would be a fit. But I think more likely it would have to be a player acquired via trade, someone who's solid but may not be viewed as a sexy acquisition.

 

[jt]

Gotta disagree on this one - Chychrun isn't currently in the same ballpark as Jones.

Who's saying he is? I'm not. He's also not as proven as Shea Weber but he's worth more in trade.

Could he get there? Sure and last season he looked like he may surpass Jones, but he is not in that realm today. Additionally Jones expiring contract was $5.4m at the time (knowingly due for a big pay raise).

Which is exactly my point. No trade for Jones happens without knowing he'll be re-signed for a GIGANTIC deal. So a team trading for him had to know they could re-sign him. The only such team was Chicago. That gave him all the leverage. So who cares what his expiring contract was? It wasn't relevant to making a trade.

It's cool to bank on youth/potential and I agree it is a factor, but there is a reason why we cannot trade Byfield for a player like Guentzel straight up today - there is a lot of risk that despite a high potential it will never be realized.

I don't think I understand this point.

I agree with VCRW that 4 1st round draft picks from a lottery team is too much. 4 1st round draft picks from a playoff contender (late round picks) though may be feasible.

Ok, but based on what data? What 23ish D like Chychrun has been traded for prospects and picks?

 

[jt]

Well, Hampus Lindholm immediately comes to mind. I don't think we could trade for him, but if he hits free agency I think he would be a fit. But I think more likely it would have to be a player acquired via trade, someone who's solid but may not be viewed as a sexy acquisition.

I agree 1,000% he'd be a fit. But IMO he won't sign in LA. What high end UFA (on the market, not already in LA like Gaborik) has signed in LA? Everything I hear from the hockey talking heads is that LA isn't a destination place. UFAs just don't sign here, so counting on a UFA is unrealistic. And even if he did come, he'd cost something like $8M x 7. Do you really think they should pay that?

 

[HeadInjury]

I agree 1,000% he'd be a fit. But IMO he won't sign in LA. What high end UFA (on the market, not already in LA like Gaborik) has signed in LA? Everything I hear from the hockey talking heads is that LA isn't a destination place. UFAs just don't sign here, so counting on a UFA is unrealistic. And even if he did come, he'd cost something like $8M x 7. Do you really think they should pay that?

My only concern is the term, not the annual salary. So that would make it difficult to sign him. Plus I agree he probably doesn't want to come here.

In terms of the salary, we have so much cap space for the next 3-4 years its ridiculous. Between AA ($2.75m), Maatta ($3.3m), Carter retention ($2.6m), Edler ($3.5m) and Brown ($5.8m), that's $18 million coming off the books. Then $7 million coming off the next year (Quick $5.8m and Phanuef buyout 1.06m). Granted Quick and Brown might get re-signed, but it would be for way less and with so many youngish players, none of whom are absolutely killing it, their second contracts and going to me largely manageable (like Kempe's was).

Then in the following season Kopitar's contract ends and he'll sign for less. Plus were are out of Arvidsson's, Roy's and Walkers' deals that same year if we want. It's not until Byfield's contract comes up that we are going to have to open the Brink's truck like we had to do on Kopitar's and Doughty's second contracts.

 

[jt]

My only concern is the term, not the annual salary. So that would make it difficult to sign him. Plus I agree he probably doesn't want to come here.

In terms of the salary, we have so much cap space for the next 3-4 years its ridiculous. Between AA ($2.75m), Maatta ($3.3m), Carter retention ($2.6m), Edler ($3.5m) and Brown ($5.8m), that's $18 million coming off the books. Then $7 million coming off the next year (Quick $5.8m and Phanuef buyout 1.06m). Granted Quick and Brown might get re-signed, but it would be for way less and with so many youngish players, none of whom are absolutely killing it, their second contracts and going to me largely manageable (like Kempe's was).

Then in the following season Kopitar's contract ends and he'll sign for less. Plus were are out of Arvidsson's, Roy's and Walkers' deals that same year if we want. It's not until Byfield's contract comes up that we are going to have to open the Brink's truck like we had to do on Kopitar's and Doughty's second contracts.

And that's been my point with all the Chychrun discussion. If not him, then who? I can respect people who say "it doesn't need to be a LD" or "let's just go with what we have". But then I want to hear names. What do the D pairings look like in 2 years? Or 5 years? All this pie-in-the-sky "well just find someone" is silly because IMO that is unrealistic and it's just fans being goofy fans wishing for the unattainable and complaining when it doesn't happen.

 

[santiclaws]

My only concern is the term, not the annual salary. So that would make it difficult to sign him. Plus I agree he probably doesn't want to come here.

In terms of the salary, we have so much cap space for the next 3-4 years its ridiculous. Between AA ($2.75m), Maatta ($3.3m), Carter retention ($2.6m), Edler ($3.5m) and Brown ($5.8m), that's $18 million coming off the books. Then $7 million coming off the next year (Quick $5.8m and Phanuef buyout 1.06m). Granted Quick and Brown might get re-signed, but it would be for way less and with so many youngish players, none of whom are absolutely killing it, their second contracts and going to me largely manageable (like Kempe's was).

Then in the following season Kopitar's contract ends and he'll sign for less. Plus were are out of Arvidsson's, Roy's and Walkers' deals that same year if we want. It's not until Byfield's contract comes up that we are going to have to open the Brink's truck like we had to do on Kopitar's and Doughty's second contracts.

You also have a bunch of guys you're going to need to re-sign, starting with Kempe. Plus there are contracts which haven't kicked in yet, like Peterson's. There's not nearly as much cap room as you think.

 

[jom]

And that's been my point with all the Chychrun discussion. If not him, then who? I can respect people who say "it doesn't need to be a LD" or "let's just go with what we have". But then I want to hear names. What do the D pairings look like in 2 years? Or 5 years? All this pie-in-the-sky "well just find someone" is silly because IMO that is unrealistic and it's just fans being goofy fans wishing for the unattainable and complaining when it doesn't happen.

I think you believe this is the ONLY opportunity the Kings will have to get a LD. Two months ago no one thought JC would be available. Next month it could be someone else. Who knows?

jom

 

[DryKing]

Who's saying he is? I'm not. He's also not as proven as Shea Weber but he's worth more in trade.

Again I disagree, I don't think Chychrun is worth more than Jones was when he was traded to Chicago. I've been watching Chychrun closely since this discussion started and am confident his is, and will be, a high end defensemen. That said, while he has the potential to be a top pairing I do not see him being the top D on a contending team like Jones, Doughty etc.

And that's been my point with all the Chychrun discussion. If not him, then who? I can respect people who say "it doesn't need to be a LD" or "let's just go with what we have". But then I want to hear names. What do the D pairings look like in 2 years? Or 5 years? All this pie-in-the-sky "well just find someone" is silly because IMO that is unrealistic and it's just fans being goofy fans wishing for the unattainable and complaining when it doesn't happen.

I feel like this conversation is running in circles. I previously provided you a long list of names, included players who have a lot more "youth" than Chychrun. Please see below. What I want to hear from you are alternatives to Chychrun who you feel the Kings should target.

I'm not a GM so I don't know who is available or what the cost might be, but I would consider the following depending on availability and cost: Lindholm, Ghost, Dunn, Martinez, Slavin, York, Broberg, Harley (the last 3 beind future investments). Alternately we could stick with what we have and wait for the right deal to come along or use FA. .

 

[jt]

I think you believe this is the ONLY opportunity the Kings will have to get a LD. Two months ago no one thought JC would be available. Next month it could be someone else. Who knows?

jom

Sure, why not? There's been so many high end LD available. I bet they can trade Sean Walker for Rasmus Dahlin.

 

[jt]

Again I disagree, I don't think Chychrun is worth more than Jones was when he was traded to Chicago. I've been watching Chychrun closely since this discussion started and am confident his is, and will be, a high end defensemen. That said, while he has the potential to be a top pairing I do not see him being the top D on a contending team like Jones, Doughty etc.

I don't think anyone expects him to be a top pairing D...at least not anyone who's being realistic. He's a D2. And the LD1 the Kings need. But Jones isn't (and didn't play with CBJ) like a D1. They both need a true D1 to take the pressure off.

I feel like this conversation is running in circles. I previously provided you a long list of names, included players who have a lot more "youth" than Chychrun. Please see below. What I want to hear from you are alternatives to Chychrun who you feel the Kings should target.

I agree it's running in circles. You give names, I explain why they either aren't acquirable or aren't what they need.

As for alternatives, THAT'S THE PROBLEM. There aren't any LD to target who are realistically available.

 

[What party?]

I agree 1,000% he'd be a fit. But IMO he won't sign in LA. What high end UFA (on the market, not already in LA like Gaborik) has signed in LA? Everything I hear from the hockey talking heads is that LA isn't a destination place. UFAs just don't sign here, so counting on a UFA is unrealistic. And even if he did come, he'd cost something like $8M x 7. Do you really think they should pay that?

Hmmm. Just gave hockeydb a quick peek for an overview and did he fully recover from the wrist injury? Because if not...we might have a shot.=)

 

[LAKingSteve]

I agree 1,000% he'd be a fit. But IMO he won't sign in LA. What high end UFA (on the market, not already in LA like Gaborik) has signed in LA? Everything I hear from the hockey talking heads is that LA isn't a destination place. UFAs just don't sign here, so counting on a UFA is unrealistic. And even if he did come, he'd cost something like $8M x 7. Do you really think they should pay that?

I think that's somewhat accurate though if the team does build a winner soon, you might see that change a bit. The reality is that it will be tough to sign anyone big with the cap issues they'll have over the coming years.

 

[jt]

My only concern is the term, not the annual salary. So that would make it difficult to sign him. Plus I agree he probably doesn't want to come here.

In terms of the salary, we have so much cap space for the next 3-4 years its ridiculous. Between AA ($2.75m), Maatta ($3.3m), Carter retention ($2.6m), Edler ($3.5m) and Brown ($5.8m), that's $18 million coming off the books. Then $7 million coming off the next year (Quick $5.8m and Phanuef buyout 1.06m). Granted Quick and Brown might get re-signed, but it would be for way less and with so many youngish players, none of whom are absolutely killing it, their second contracts and going to me largely manageable (like Kempe's was).

Then in the following season Kopitar's contract ends and he'll sign for less. Plus were are out of Arvidsson's, Roy's and Walkers' deals that same year if we want. It's not until Byfield's contract comes up that we are going to have to open the Brink's truck like we had to do on Kopitar's and Doughty's second contracts.

There's an armchair GM tool on CapFriendly (just to clarify, I'm not the tool, it's a way to create your own roster). I just created this team for next season using round numbers for cap hits and making assumptions about the RFAs and what they'll sign for:

Kempe ($5M) - Kopitar ($10M) - Kaliyev ($.9M)
Iafallo ($4M) - Byfield ($.9M) - Vilardi ($.9M)
Moore ($1.9M) - Danault - ($5.5M) - Arvidsson ($4.2M)
Lemieux ($2.5M) - Lizotte ($1M) - Fagemo ($.8M)
Scratches: Grundstr?m ($1M), Andersson ($.9M)

Anderson ($2.5M) - Doughty ($11M)
Bj?rnfot ($.9M) - Durzi ($2M)
Walker ($2.7M) - Clarke ($.9M)
Scratch: Moverare ($.8M)

Quick ($5.8M)
Petersen ($5M)

[EDIT] Cap hit: $73.2M ($71.1M + Phaneuf + Richards)
[EDIT] Cap space: $9.3M

Players who are gone:
Brown ($5.9M)
Edler ($3.5M)
Maatta ($3.3M)
Roy ($3.2M) (or sub him in for Walker and Walker can be gone and Durzi moves to LD - that would lower the cap space by $.5M)
AA ($2.7M)

So have at it and figure out how to fit in a UFA LD/RD with a big cap hit like a Dougie Hamilton at $8.5M. You can change RFA cap hits but be realistic. This is who they are with their cap hits for this year:
Kempe ($2M)
Vilardi ($.9M)
Lemieux ($1.6M)
Grundstrom ($.7M)
Anderson ($.9M)
Durzi ($.8M)
Moverare ($.8)

[EDIT] Thank you HeadInjury for the peer review so I could correct it.

 

[VCRW]

Including Bjornfot in a trade package is seriously poor planning for a team that is already woefully short on left shot defensemen. If Maatta and Edler are not re-signed, who then becomes the third LD? Moverare? Wolanin? And if one of the left shot guys goes down with an injury who then gets the call? Gaunce? Phillips? Kasastul? Nielsen?

Chychrun, Anderson, and Bjornfot would be a solid lineup on the left side. Any combination without Bjornfot is weaker. Why create a hole to fill a hole?

Kings are ridiculously wealthy in right shot defense players/prospects. That is the resource that needs to be tapped. Sending away the team’s most promising young LD to acquire another LD makes very little sense to me. Trading Durzi would be less damaging to the roster strength.

 

[jt]

Including Bjornfot in a trade package is seriously poor planning for a team that is already woefully short on left shot defensemen. If Maatta and Edler are not re-signed, who then becomes the third LD? Moverare? Wolanin? And if one of the left shot guys goes down with an injury who then gets the call? Gaunce? Phillips? Kasastul? Nielsen?

It does create a hole but if not getting Bjornfot back to replace Chychrun on the left side is a deal breaker for Arizona, do you not make the deal? Keep in mind there will be lots of depth LD available as UFAs. While very few high end UFAs sign with the Kings, getting a 3rd pairing LD like Leddy, De Haan, or Kulak shouldn't be too hard. Or maybe a more physical LD like Hagg to play with Durzi.

Chychrun, Anderson, and Bjornfot would be a solid lineup on the left side. Any combination without Bjornfot is weaker. Why create a hole to fill a hole?

Because the Coyotes might require a top 4 LD back.

Kings are ridiculously wealthy in right shot defense players/prospects. That is the resource that needs to be tapped. Sending away the team’s most promising young LD to acquire another LD makes very little sense to me. Trading Durzi would be less damaging to the roster strength.

Agree 100% on tapping that resource in trades. But IMO, that's more likely to be for a high end natural scorer. Or a deal with a team heavy on LD (with a high end one they can trade) and light on RD. But I can't find a team like that.